I haven’t written many articles about Öræfajökull volcano, since most of the time nothing happens in it. Öræfajökull volcano is located outside the main activity area in Iceland, like Esjufjöll and Snæfell (east Iceland). This three volcanoes form a volcano “arch” in south to east Iceland. Research suggests that old continental crust is possibly melting under Öræfajökull volcano and maybe Esjufjöll volcano (unclear). Research into that can be found here. This research shows a possible volcano directly east of Esjufjöll, I don’t have it on my maps so I don’t have a name for it (it might be unconfirmed volcano in that area, some maps show it, other don’t. I don’t know why).
The magnitude of the earthquakes in question is only 1,1 and up to 1,8. What makes them interesting and might be a signal about something is about to happen in Öræfajökull volcano is the depth of earthquakes in question. The earthquake (magnitude 1,1) with the most depth has the depth of 21,2 km. The rest of the earthquakes has the depth of 19,0 to 20,7 km. View on the tremor plot suggest that this earthquake activity is magma related, rather than being driven by tectonic forces.
This activity started in the year 2011 with few earthquakes, no earthquakes happened in 2012 according to my data. Since then few earthquakes have been happening each year. How long the process is from just minor earthquake activity until an eruption starts in Öræfajökull volcano is something I don’t know and far as I know historical documents about the known eruptions are limited at best. Last known eruptions took place in the years 1362 June 5th until 1362 October 15 +-45 days, the other known eruption was in the year 1727 on August 3 and it lasted until May 1st 1728 +-30 days.